Computer Modeling Algorithm Development of the Innovative Project Effectiveness Evaluation

Abstract

The main purpose of this research is to develop methodological support and economic and mathematical tools for managing and evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects based on binomial models of real options. The subject of the study is a computer program algorithm for using the binomial model of real options and a model for phased risk assessment of innovative projects portfolios on this basis. The scientific hypothesis of the research is based on the need for the economic and mathematical toolkit developed for the innovative project and allows increasing the accuracy of the assessment when analyzing projects, which is very important when it comes to innovative projects with a high degree of uncertainty. The novelty of the approach consists of the possibility for the consideration of innovative projects from the perspective of multi-stage and multi-scenarios, as well as the use of binomial models using the theory of real options and a phased risk assessment model for innovative project portfolios and their implementation as a software product. The authors proposed technical and economic project efficiency evaluation of the market potential of the project results with a high level of probability in the form of a software package. The results of the study have empirical value for the research results, and application in practice of analyzing investment projects will help improve the accuracy of estimates and justify the feasibility of investor participation in innovative projects.