Cross-Level Partisanship in Concurrent Federal-Provincial Elections:

Abstract

The purpose of this project is to explore the following research question: do same day (i.e. concurrent) provincial-federal elections exhibit a higher degree of cross-level partisanship than non-concurrent elections?  This paper proposes that concurrent elections lead to a convergence in voters evaluations of federal-provincial co-partisans, and that this results in a higher degree of cross-level partisanship than in non-concurrent elections. Using 2011 Canada Election Studies (CES) data on federal party vote choice and provincial party preference, this paper will project the results of concurrent federal-provincial elections for three Canadian provinces. The results of these projected concurrent elections will be compared to actual party vote shares received in the first provincial election held following the 2011 Canadian federal election. The comparison of these data will be used to test the hypothesis that concurrent elections have a higher degree of cross-level partisanship than non-concurrent elections. This paper consists of five sections. First, I introduce the aims of this research and discuss its theoretical and substantive significance by referencing relevant literature. Second, a comprehensive theoretical framework is developed to explain why cross-level partisanship is expected to be higher in a concurrent election. Third, I outline the research design and methodology used to test this causal hypothesis. Fourth, I report and interpret my findings which show that overall cross-level partisanship was slightly higher in projected concurrent elections. I conclude by discussing the implications and limits of this study.