Forecasting Self-Consumption Solar Power Capacity of Industry and Business Sector in Thailand: a System Dynamic Model

2018 2nd International Conference on Engineering Innovation (ICEI) Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI:10.1109/ICEI18.2018.8448633

Chayaporn Maitreesorasunte, Jing Tang, Rujira Chaysiri, C. Jeenanunta, W. Pannakkong, Hashini Vitharana, P. Parthanadee

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The future of solar Photovoltaic (PV) technology is bright. Not only solar PV is a clean energy but also has its price dropped and has its efficiency improved significantly since 1975. Thus, investing in solar PV is feasible and attractive nowadays. In Thailand, industrial and business sector are the largest power consumers which have an opportunity to reduce electricity cost and promote Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) by using solar PV. So, installing solar PV as Isolated Power Supply system (IPS) of companies in the industrial sector reduces electricity consumption from the grid. This would cause a problem in demand forecasting for electricity in the grid. Through a questionnaire survey, this research aims to develop a system dynamic model to understand the dynamic behavior of factors that affect the solar PV capacity, and forecast the monthly solar PV capacity growth from 2018 to 2022 of the industry and business sector in Thailand.

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预测泰国工商业部门自用太阳能发电能力:一个系统动态模型

太阳能光伏(PV)技术的未来是光明的。自1975年以来，太阳能光伏不仅是一种清洁能源，而且价格下降，效率显著提高。因此，投资太阳能光伏发电在今天是可行的和有吸引力的。在泰国，工业和商业部门是最大的电力消费者，他们有机会通过使用太阳能光伏来降低电力成本并促进企业社会责任(CSR)。因此，在工业部门的公司中安装太阳能光伏作为隔离电源系统(IPS)可以减少电网的电力消耗。这将导致电网电力需求预测的问题。本研究通过问卷调查，建立系统动态模型，了解影响泰国太阳能光伏发电容量因素的动态行为，并预测2018 - 2022年泰国工商界太阳能光伏发电容量的月度增长。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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2018 2nd International Conference on Engineering Innovation (ICEI)

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