The factors of post-covid recovery in the growth of Ukrainian economy in 2021-2022

Abstract

Given the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, the study focuses on the higher risk of negative long-term consequences of the pandemic in developing economies (particularly in Ukraine). This is due to the limited fiscal support of economies in these countries, in contrast to the numerous measures taken by the governments of developed countries to support citizens and businesses during the corona crisis. The devastating long-term effects of the coronary crisis on the economies and populations of poorer countries will continue until governments take steps towards economic recovery and promotion of economic growth. Based on the identification of the main drivers of economic growth in Ukraine in 2016-2019, as well as the generalization of the experience of post-COVID economic recovery in other countries (including Australia, USA, EU, Japan and advanced Asian countries), the study proposes ways to restore Ukraine’s economy and minimize adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The author proposes to promote the recovery of the Ukrainian economy through expanding domestic (both consumer and investment) demand and intensifying innovation-based development. As shown by the analysis of international experience, consumer demand under the pandemic conditions should be encouraged, in particular through the development of domestic tourism; assistance to small businesses in diversifying their sales channels; promotion of demand in the online market. The author points out that in order to promote investment demand it is necessary to emphasize the development of infrastructure, introduction of temporary investment incentives, and transfer of losses received in previous tax periods. It is proposed to intensify the innovative development of Ukraine by creating an environment favorable to the development of small innovative enterprises (startups), increasing research and development costs, and integrating business, education, and research organizations.