Role of Chaos and Uncertainty of Theories of Management of Social and Economic Processes

Abstract

The relevance of the presented article is due to the complexity and ambiguity of the course of reforms in Russia associated with the modernization of previous economic relations, systems, structures, institutions and their replacement by new ones, adequate to the challenges and threats to the sustainable economic development of the country in the context of globalization, political contradictions, sanctions from Western countries. One of the reasons for the failure of the ongoing economic transformations in the country is the removal of the state from participation in the financing of the real economy and the regulation of socio-economic processes. A new direction is being developed in management theory, the peculiarity of which is based on the use of chaos theory to analyze the dynamics of management processes. The aim of the research. the identification and awareness of the mechanics of chaos development will allow us to predict the likelihood of its approach, and therefore, to identify the causes and to prevent negative manifestations. Objectives. To identify the main trends in managerial processes and consider scenarios of possible development based on knowledge of the forms of managerial relationships, and to develop science-based recommendations for improving the management system. Metodology. In the conducted research the methods of comparative analysis, expert assessments, as well as methods of fuzzy logic and dynamic programming were used, which allowed to solve the tasks. Results. Decision-making associated with the management of the system as a whole, or its units, goals, objectives, conditions of control actions, as well as criteria for assessing the level of achievement of the goals are largely subjective and have a probabilistic basis. This generates fuzzy relations, probabilistic values, which over time leads to a change in the properties, goals and objectives facing the system. Conclusions. In order to achieve a goal in the process of solving management problems, it is often necessary to make major structural, personnel changes and financial investments, and the decisions made must take into account the possibility of achieving the strategic objectives facing the country, region or industry.