New forecasting and modeling tools for operating power systems with variable energy resources

Abstract

Due to the increasing emphasis of low carbon energy mix and demand responsiveness, the uncertainty of generation required to maintain system balancing has been growing significantly. To deal with such uncertainty, Regional Transmission Organizations and Transmission System Operators require more look-ahead capabilities beyond realtime. This paper discusses an emerging set of forecasting and modeling tools to address the challenges posed by renewable energy penetration and smart grid. The proposed solutions of forecasting and modeling will provide better forward-looking situational awareness and allow large grid operators to cope with uncertain intermittent and distributed energy resources and efficiently maintain system reliability of power systems.