Assessing shocks to the economy of russia and its regions (some approaches)

Abstract

The socio-economic system of Russia and its regions has faced two shocks in recent years – restrictions caused by the pandemic coronavirus in 2020 and sanctions imposed in spring 2022. In these conditions, the need to form methods for forecasting economic shocks that can respond to the emerging challenges becomes more relevant. The article provides an analysis of economic shocks as a phenomenon, and offers some approaches to assessing the shock impact, applied both abroad and in Russia. Shocks to Russian regions are investigated using the principal component analysis (PCA) and R-statistics tool (R programming language). As a result, three clusters are identified, which include subjects of the Russian Federation, based on the degree of damage caused by restrictive measures at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Conclusions are drawn on the possibilities of improving the tools for assessing economic shocks at the macro- and meso-levels.