Risk assessment and vulnerability of aquaculture activities in the Nile Delta to climate change impacts and its implications on food security

Abstract

: Despite all debates and controversies, a global consensus has reached that climate change is a reality. It is predicted to lead adverse and irreversible implications on the earth. These implications may include increased global temperature, sea level rise, and extreme weather events, which will have direct or indirect impacts on food production systems and global biodiversity. In this context, aquaculture is no exception. This paper discusses potential impacts of climate change on aquaculture and food security in the Nile Delta of Egypt. The assessment considered mainly inundation by sea level rise, heat stress and increasing water salinity due to Sea level rise. Results showed that, the total areas of fish farms that would be vulnerable to inundation, according to the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios were found to be about 57176.64 feddan and 63025.95 feddan, respectively. These areas represent 54.35 and 59.92% of the total area of the present fish farms of Kafr El Sheikh Governorate. The combined effects of rising temperatures, sea level and salinities in the study area may result in a number of positive impacts on aquaculture activities such as increased growth rates and food conversion efficiencies of target species, longer growing seasons, reduced cold water mortality and expansion of areas suitable for aquaculture.