The Impact of the Demographic Transition on the Total Factor Productivity in Türkiye

Abstract

The demographic transition would affect almost every aspect of life and our surroundings and could lead to significant changes and consequences in the social and economic sub-systems. In addition, it is a vital factor in economics. Therefore, a deep understanding of demographic transitions, characteristics, and dimensions would be helpful due to better managing the consequences and preparing for the future. The aim of this paper is to explore the impact of Türkiye's demographic transition on total factor productivity (TFP) from 1970 to 2021 using a Probit model. The results indicate that factors such as dependency ratio, elderly population ratio, youth population ratio, deaths per 1000 people, life expectancy, population density, gross capital formation per capita, and manufacturing production can increase the likelihood of TFP growth. However, factors such as capital stock, urban population, and births per 1000 people are shown to potentially reduce this likelihood.