Beyond Military Deterrence

Abstract

States interact in a multiplicity of domains, and most of them are not military in nature. Situating the security domain alongside economic and social domains of interaction among countries is important for creating a full analysis of a state’s priorities in a particular region, or with any particular other state. Failure to appreciate the nonmilitary dimensions of international relations in Asia in particular can lead one to misdiagnose the prospects of conflict and cooperation, potentially leading to tragic spirals. Data on East Asian defense spending over twenty-five years appears to present a puzzle: by many measures, East Asian military expenditures have declined significantly over the past quarter century. This finding appears starkly at odds with the conventional wisdom that Chinese bellicosity, its expenditure on anti-access/area-denial capabilities, and the United States’ reallocation of forces are increasing tensions in the region. Any policy of cross-domain deterrence that fails to appreciate interactions across the full multiplicity of domains of international intercourse risks courting deterrence failure.