Electoral proximity, political violence, and personal wellbeing: An experimental analysis in West Africa

Abstract

Does the threat of political violence affect wellbeing? We argue that political violence induced by elections reduces wellbeing as it provokes emotional reactions like anxiety and fear. There is a lingering effect from political violence that reemerges with new rounds of elections, and that reduces wellbeing. To test this claim, we employ an experimental analysis in Côte d'Ivoire. We motivate political violence via a treatment about the 2020 election, and the proximity of the 2020 election. We find that each has a negative effect on wellbeing. In Côte d'Ivoire, we also consider the direct effect of political violence on wellbeing, and find that it is inversely associated with wellbeing. Finally, we extend the analysis of election proximity to Nigeria during the 2023 election. The results here show that proximity is (i) inversely associated with wellbeing and (ii) that it is directly associated with the expectation of political violence. In all cases, political violence lowers self-assessed wellbeing. We argue that this effect is likely to be greater for women than men, but find that it is generally true for the latter. We conclude the paper with considerations about its generalizability, ideas for future research, and policy implications.