Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Nigeria: Applications of ARDL Model and Co-integration Analysis

Abstract

A key policy objective of most oil-producing economies, especially among developing countries like Nigeria, is sustainable diversification of national income sources. For most oil-producing economies, this depends significantly on exploring the full potential of the non-oil sector. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and co-integration analysis are used in this article to evaluate the growth impact of non-oil exports and sustainability of non-oil exports vis-a-vis growth in Nigeria. The regression result and the co-integration analysis show that growth evidence of non-oil exports exists in Nigeria; it is also sustainable. In other words, beyond export-led growth hypothesis, non-oil export-led growth hypothesis also holds in Nigeria.