Do Scientific Publications Predict the Supply of New Mobile Technologies?

Abstract

Can we predict the supply and consequently the diffusion of new mobile technology based innovations by studying the number of publications discussing that technology? The bibliometric method is used to analyze the research effort put into certain enabling technologies for mobile computing and then their diffusion is estimated by looking at the new products that incorporate these technologies. The technologies in question are GPS which supports location-based services, camera, as well as Bluetooth, WiFi and NFC, which support local connectivity. The results indicate that the first papers about emerging technologies are typically published about three years before commercial deployment, and an increasing number of papers precede the widespread adoption of a technology. However, it should be noted that even significant number of publications on certain technology based innovation does not warrant its diffusion.