The Structure of the Political Opportunity in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq – a study of the popular protests during 2003-2013

سردار محى الدين, فرهاد مصطفى
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Abstract

The structure of political opportunity is often defined as those dimensions of the political climate that provide the incentives for the victory of protests about political power and its societal policies, which generates pressure on the political elite and forces it to openness and transition to the democracy. The theory of the structure of political opportunity appeared in the seventies of the last century, and the theory focused on: that the structure of political opportunity depends on certain variables in order to create a societal transformation at the level of politics, culture and economy, such as: the opening of political entrances to reach participation at the legislative and executive level, instability of the arrangement the political, influential alliances about political power and the authority itself with some of the forces that see it revolving in its orbit, the emergence of divisions among the ruling political elite. There were positive influences in the structure of political opportunity in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in the period 2003-2013 in the field, such as: time, awareness, welfare, openness, weakness of party affiliation, the rise of social movements and civil society organizations, the revolutionary elite, media and political communication available to all, Supporting national and international equations, change in the political map. However, until now, it faces the political opportunity structure for many internal and external challenges at all levels, and among these challenges are: the party-dominated formation of society, limiting transformations in partisan convergence, flexible repression and in the name of democracy, the monopoly of power, the response of power to the demands of citizens, the absence of the constitution, and the external interventions.
伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区的政治机会结构——对2003-2013年民众抗议活动的研究
政治机会的结构通常被定义为政治气候的那些维度,这些维度为反对政治权力及其社会政策的抗议活动的胜利提供了激励,这对政治精英产生了压力,迫使其开放并向民主过渡。政治机会结构理论出现于上世纪70年代,该理论关注的是:政治机会结构依赖于一定的变量,以便在政治、文化和经济层面上产生社会转型,例如:政治入口的开放使得立法和行政层面的参与,政治安排的不稳定性,政治权力和权威本身的有影响力的联盟,以及一些力量看到它在自己的轨道上旋转,执政的政治精英之间出现分歧。2003-2013年期间,伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区的政治机会结构在该领域产生了积极影响,例如:时间、意识、福利、开放性、党派关系的薄弱、社会运动和民间社会组织的兴起、革命精英、所有人都可以使用的媒体和政治沟通、支持国内和国际方程式、政治地图的变化。然而,到目前为止,它在各个层面上都面临着许多内部和外部挑战的政治机会结构,这些挑战包括:政党主导的社会形态,党派趋同中的限制变革,以民主的名义进行的灵活镇压,权力的垄断,权力对公民需求的反应,宪法的缺失,以及外部干预。
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