Time Zones, Tiredness, and Turnout: A Natural Experiment on How Time Constraints Influence Elections

Jerome Schafer, John B. Holbein
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Abstract

In this article, we show that many citizens fail to vote because they are too tired. To do so, we leverage multiple approaches, including a unique natural quasi-experiment that exploits discontinuous decreases in sleep times on the eastern side of U.S. time zone boundaries. Our preferred model specification indicates that these exogenous decreases in sleep times depress county-level turnout in Congressional elections by about 2 percentage points. This effect is magnified in areas where obstacles to voting are greatest. Moreover, tiredness appears to exacerbate participatory inequality — depressing turnout in low propensity communities most — and push election outcomes towards Republicans. Supplementing this analysis, we conduct an observational study validating the direct relationship between tiredness and turnout. Our findings have important theoretical implications for the study of political participation. They suggest that many citizens hold the precursors to participation but lack the general, rather than expressly political, motivation to act on their intentions.
时区、疲劳和投票率:时间限制如何影响选举的自然实验
在这篇文章中,我们展示了许多公民没有投票是因为他们太累了。为了做到这一点,我们利用了多种方法,包括一个独特的自然准实验,利用美国时区边界东部睡眠时间的不连续减少。我们首选的模型说明表明,这些外生睡眠时间的减少使国会选举的县级投票率降低了约2个百分点。这种影响在投票障碍最大的地区被放大。此外,疲劳似乎加剧了参与性不平等——最能抑制低倾向社区的投票率——并将选举结果推向共和党一方。为了补充这一分析,我们进行了一项观察性研究,验证了疲劳和投票率之间的直接关系。我们的研究结果对政治参与的研究具有重要的理论意义。他们认为,许多公民拥有参与的先兆,但缺乏总体动机,而不是明确的政治动机,以实现他们的意图。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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