Dynamic simulation of urban development in different scenarios mode

Abstract

In past decades, the Dyna-clue model has been widely used in the world. In addition to efficacy of model's algorithms, the choice of factors, data processing and model parameter settings may affect the accuracy of the simulation as well. However, less attention has been paid to how spatial data processing (such as classification) impact simulation results. In this paper, four schemes are designed to detect how the spatial data processing and factors impact on the simulation results by integrated GIS spatial analysis and SPSS statistical analysis tools. It revealed that reclassification based on scientific and the traffic driving factors choosing reasonably can improve the simulation results. Land-use change was simulated from 2000 to 2006 by using the optimized scheme. The detection results from the approaches of map overlay and Kappa index show that the correct rate of simulation reached to 99,26%, and the Kappa index was 99.11%. The optimized scheme was used to simulate land use change in the future based on different scenarios, and the environmental effects of land use development patterns was detected.