Characterization of the underlying mechanisms of vulnerability in complex projects using dynamic network simulation

Abstract

The objective of this study was to investigate the underlying mechanisms of vulnerability in complex construction projects using simulation experiments. Specifically, two hypotheses related to project vulnerability were tested: (1) project schedule performance is negatively correlated with vulnerability; (2) the level of project vulnerability is positively correlated with project exposure to uncertainty and organizational complexity. In the proposed dynamic network simulation methodology, construction projects are modeled as heterogeneous meta-networks. Project vulnerability is assessed by the decrease in meta-network efficiency due to uncertainty-induced perturbations. Project schedule deviation is used as a measure for quantifying the impacts of vulnerability on project performance outcomes. The proposed simulation methodology was implemented in three case studies of real-world construction projects. Monte-Carlo simulation experiments were conducted under different simulation scenarios consisting of varying levels of uncertainty and project planning strategies to test the hypotheses.