A multi-parameter evaluation method of large generator fault probability

Abstract

It is conducive to ensuring the safety and reliability of the power system that the timely and accurate evaluation of the reliability of the large generator. A composite evaluation method of the fault probability for the large generator based on the multi-characteristic parameters is proposed in this paper, and it can be employed to solve the difficult problem how the occurrence probability of fault modes of the large generator can be evaluated in the process of the reliability evaluation. Firstly, the set of the fault characteristic parameters for the large generator is established on the basis of the induction and arrangement of a large number of operation experiences and the preventive test code for the large generator. Secondly, according to the features of the fault characteristic parameters, two estimation methods of the fault mode occurrence probability are proposed, which are based on the fuzzy membership function and the relative deterioration degree respectively. Finally, on the basis of the improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) method, the composite estimation method of the fault probability for the large generator is presented, which can reasonably and adequately use the information of the various characteristic parameters. An assessment case is provided to illustrate the specific process of this evaluation method and to verify its effectiveness.