Probability Distribution Modelling of Nigeria’s Economic Growth Rate

Nigerian Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-02 DOI:10.48198/njpas/21.b18

B. O. K., Adewole A.I., A. S

{"title":"Probability Distribution Modelling of Nigeria’s Economic Growth Rate","authors":"B. O. K., Adewole A.I., A. S","doi":"10.48198/njpas/21.b18","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The probability distribution that best describes the Nigeria economic growth rate from year 1960-2019 was investigated. The secondary data obtained from www.macrotrends.net on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in other to measure the Economic Growth Rate of Nigeria was used. Six theoretical probability distributions were fitted using Normal distribution, Weibull distribution, Pareto distribution, Cauchy distribution, Gamma distribution, lognormal distribution. The Weibull distribution fitted the data as confirmed by the Kolmogorov Smirnov goodness of fit test and the best fit distribution was selected using the Akaike Information Criteria, Bayes Information Criteria. Probability forecast was done using the best fit probability distribution. This shows that the probability of obtaining an increase in the value of economic growth rate in less than 5 years in Nigeria is 8% which is highly low. Also, the probability of obtaining an increase in the value of Economic Growth rate in less than 10 years in Nigeria is 14% which is also low. Lastly, the probability of obtaining an increase in the value of economic growth rate above 10 years in Nigeria is 85% which is high. Meaning that before we can have\na meaningful increment in our economic growth in Nigeria is after ten years of this study","PeriodicalId":194209,"journal":{"name":"Nigerian Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nigerian Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.48198/njpas/21.b18","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The probability distribution that best describes the Nigeria economic growth rate from year 1960-2019 was investigated. The secondary data obtained from www.macrotrends.net on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in other to measure the Economic Growth Rate of Nigeria was used. Six theoretical probability distributions were fitted using Normal distribution, Weibull distribution, Pareto distribution, Cauchy distribution, Gamma distribution, lognormal distribution. The Weibull distribution fitted the data as confirmed by the Kolmogorov Smirnov goodness of fit test and the best fit distribution was selected using the Akaike Information Criteria, Bayes Information Criteria. Probability forecast was done using the best fit probability distribution. This shows that the probability of obtaining an increase in the value of economic growth rate in less than 5 years in Nigeria is 8% which is highly low. Also, the probability of obtaining an increase in the value of Economic Growth rate in less than 10 years in Nigeria is 14% which is also low. Lastly, the probability of obtaining an increase in the value of economic growth rate above 10 years in Nigeria is 85% which is high. Meaning that before we can have a meaningful increment in our economic growth in Nigeria is after ten years of this study

查看原文本刊更多论文

尼日利亚经济增长率的概率分布模型

研究了最能描述尼日利亚1960-2019年经济增长率的概率分布。本文使用了从www.macrotrends.net获得的国内生产总值(GDP)的二手数据来衡量尼日利亚的经济增长率。采用正态分布、威布尔分布、帕累托分布、柯西分布、伽马分布、对数正态分布拟合了6种理论概率分布。Weibull分布通过Kolmogorov - Smirnov拟合优度检验对数据进行拟合，并采用Akaike信息准则、Bayes信息准则选择最佳拟合分布。利用最佳拟合概率分布进行概率预测。这表明，尼日利亚在不到5年的时间内获得经济增长率值增加的概率为8%，这是非常低的。此外，尼日利亚在不到10年的时间内获得经济增长率值增加的概率为14%，这也很低。最后，尼日利亚获得10年以上经济增长率价值增长的概率是85%，这是很高的。这意味着在尼日利亚的经济增长有意义的增长之前，我们要在这项研究的十年之后

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Nigerian Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences

自引率

0.00%

发文量