A Practical Power Prediction and Error Correction Method for Distributed PV based on the Spatial Correlation

2020 IEEE Sustainable Power and Energy Conference (iSPEC) Pub Date : 2020-11-23 DOI:10.1109/iSPEC50848.2020.9351207

Yinchi Shao, Haiyu Li, Linlin Wu, Yang Liu, Hanbing Gao, Deyu Li

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Abstract

The rapid installation of distributed photovoltaic (PV) in the distribution network has caused challenges to the load forecasting and the safety of the grid, which is urgent to realize accurate prediction of distributed PV at a small cost. A practical power prediction method for low-voltage distributed PV based on the spatial correlation was proposed. Firstly, a reference PV station (RPS) was selected based on the spatial correlation principle of adjacent regions, and the electricity output correlation between distributed PV and RPS was established through historical output data. Then, the predicted power of distributed PV was calculated with the power prediction data of the RPS considering the output correlation. Thirdly, three kinds of error sources related to the proposed method were analyzed. Based on the error analysis, an error correction method for capacity constraint and generating performance difference between distributed PV and RPS was proposed. Some typical distributed PVs in Chengde were demonstrated to verify the effectiveness of the method.

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一种实用的基于空间相关性的分布式光伏发电功率预测与误差校正方法

分布式光伏发电在配电网中的快速安装给电网负荷预测和电网安全带来了挑战，如何以较小的成本实现分布式光伏发电的准确预测迫在眉睫。提出了一种实用的基于空间相关性的低压分布式光伏发电功率预测方法。首先，基于相邻区域的空间关联原则选择参考光伏电站，并通过历史输出数据建立分布式光伏电站与参考光伏电站的输出关联;然后，考虑输出相关性，利用RPS的功率预测数据计算分布式光伏发电的预测功率。第三，分析了与该方法相关的三种误差源。在误差分析的基础上，提出了分布式光伏与RPS的容量约束和发电性能差异的误差修正方法。以承德地区典型分布式光伏为例，验证了该方法的有效性。

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2020 IEEE Sustainable Power and Energy Conference (iSPEC)

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