“A Farewell to Peace?”

Abstract

The risk factors discussed in the previous three chapters are a creeping, erosive rot that continue to undermine the structural integrity and stability of Northern Irish society. If left unaddressed, they can drag this deeply divided “post-conflict” society back into the abyss of violent conflict. There are a range of internal and external accelerants, some of which could metastasize into triggers, that further threaten the stability of peace in contemporary Northern Ireland and increase the risk of violent conflict. Among these are (1) acute economic deterioration, (2) outbreaks of limited paramilitary violence, and (3) a vote on a united Ireland. These three accelerants are cross-cutting and intersecting. In the context of these accelerants further undermining the structural integrity and stability of Northern Irish society, there are a soberingly wide range of triggering factors that can make the return of violent conflict in contemporary Northern Ireland likely or imminent.