Forecastirig the state of water resources to balance loads and increase the stability of the energy sector

Abstract

Based on the analysis of world experience, the leading role of water resources for balancing the process of electricity production and consumption in the unified energy system of Ukraine is determined, which is especially relevant against the background of the growth of production volumes and unregulated use of wind and solar energy. Modern directions of forecasting the state of water resources are analyzed, among which methods of mathematical modeling of hydrological systems, models of seasonal fluctuations and probabilistic forecasting methods based on statistical data are highlighted. Separate forecasting results are presented, which reflect the main trends regarding climate changes in the world and in Ukraine, which have a decisive impact on the state of water resources.