Implications of a net-zero target for India’s sectoral energy transitions and climate policy

Abstract

The IPCC 1.5 °C report highlights the criticality of achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas future. Many countries have announced their commitments to achieve a net-zero future for their economies. India, while doing much more than its ‘fair share’ of mitigation, has yet to announce a net-zero year target, presumably owing to the absence of an India-focused analysis on this issue. This study attempts to address this gap by modelling alternative peaking and net-zero-year scenarios for India, and highlighting its implications for transition in energy-intensive sectors. We model four combinations of peaking and net-zero-year scenarios for India (2030–2050, 2030–2060, 2040–2070, and 2050–2080) and a combination of technology availability scenarios related to carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen within each of the policy scenarios. We present the implications of these sixteen alternative scenarios for the required sectoral transitions across the electricity, transport, building, and industrial sectors in India and provide insights for India’s climate policy.