Unemployment and employment management in the context of digitalization of anti-crisis regulation

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the relationship between the level of employment, unemployment and the dynamics of GDP in the framework of cyclical nature studies of the Belarus national economy, the possibility of digitalization within economic cycle crisis phase anticipation and hence forecasting the unemployment dynamics. The study used a comparative analysis of the employment level statistical base and the dynamics of real GDP growth rates over the last 2 crises based on STATISTICA 10. The non-linear forecast of the employment level in Belarus for 2022 was also made using the Eviews 10 application software packages. The methodological basis for the choice of IT tools was the need to take into account cyclical, seasonal, delayed and prolonged reaction of the labor market to changes in the commodity market. Therefore, polynomial autoregression with distributed lag (PDL) was chosen from econometric methods. The comparative analysis of the employment level statistical base and the dynamics of real GDP growth rates over the last 2 crises showed that the dynamics of the employment level behaves as an acyclic indicator. As a result, an algorithm is proposed for setting a task for programmers when creating a management platform for the labor market and linking it with other parameters of public administration system digitization. The actions proposed will allow to plan the item of consolidated state budget expenditures for the payment of unemployment benefits more accurately and to form the targets of state employment assistance programs.