Factors Associated with Women Fertility in Bangladesh: Application on Count Regression Models

Abstract

The current total fertility rate in Bangladesh is now 2.3 births per woman, which is still above the replacement level of 2.1. The main objective of this study was to identify potential factors associated with fertility transition in Bangladesh. This study applied several regression models to find the best-fitted model to determine factors associated with the number of children ever born in Bangladesh and utilize data from the 2019 Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey. Based on the principles of the AIC, BIC, and Vuong tests, the best-fit model was the Hurdle-Poisson regression model compared to other models. Findings based on the Hurdle Poisson regression result revealed that the number of children increases with the increase of women’s age, but the number of children declines if the education status of women as well as their delayed marriage increases. Women who had secondary or higher education were less likely to have children than illiterate women. Similarly, division, residential area, wealth index, women’s functional difficulties, prenatal care, and migration have significantly influenced the number of children ever born. Based on the findings, the study suggests that fertility can be decreased by improving female education, minimizing early marriage, and eliminating poverty for all ever-married women who were particularly live in rural areas of the Chittagong and Sylhet divisions in Bangladesh. Such steps would be the largest contribution to a future reduction in fertility rates in Bangladesh.