Analysis of the possibility of GVC change among RCEP members

Abstract

This study analyzes Korea's GVC dependence by industry, the current status of value-added trade from the perspective of forward and backward linkage, and the main characteristics of GVC, focusing on RCEP members, by using value-added trade decomposition method of Wang, Wei, and Zhu (2013) with OECD ICIO (2021). In addition, it also analyzes how RCEP can affect Korea's GVC, and derives implications necessary for responding to the possibility of GVC expansion and reorganization by country-industry and the changing trade environment. This study analyzes the latest OECD ICIO (2021) data on the basis of 2018, which is meaningful in that it is an analysis result using the most up-to date data that has not caused distortions due to COVID-19 in cross-border trade. It is also meaningful to analyze the possibility of GVC change, based on the current status and characteristics of GVCs among RCEP members, including Korea-China-Japan and Korea-ASEAN, and to provide implications for responding to changing international trade issues.