Statistical analysis of antifragility in Hungarian ice hockey games

Abstract

Professional ice hockey provides a great environment for studying the antifragile behaviour of teams because of publicly available results and statistics. This study examines three-goal events in which a team gave up a goal but responded by scoring two goals. Thirty-four ice hockey games are studied from the last ten seasons of the Hungarian first league to identify the events’ characteristics and to determine whether antifragile behaviour emerged in these events. The results indicate that if the opponent scores first and has a one- or two-goal lead, the team that responds with two goals after strengthening the line exhibits a convex and, therefore, an antifragile behaviour. Antifragility has been found in 22 cases, lending support to the assumption that antifragile behaviour emerges from high-level cooperation.