Impacts of changing snowfall on seasonal complementarity of hydroelectric and solar power

Abstract

Complementarity of variable renewable energy sources at multiple temporal scales is important in order to ensure reliability of a decarbonizing energy system. In this study, we investigate the hypothesis that a decrease in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow (SWE/P) would increase monthly complementarity of hydro and solar power generation in the western U.S. With a focus on 123 dams responsible for 93% of generation, we found that these resources are seasonally complementary at about half of dams, as indicated by the sign of correlation coefficients (ρ). As hypothesized, average SWE/P at individual dams was generally positively correlated with ρ, but the dependence of ρ on SWE/P was non-linear and SWE/P only explained a modest portion of the variance in complementarity. At each dam, the dependence of annual ρ on interannual variations in SWE/P between 2002–2020 was assessed; these relationships were positive at 72% of dams but not statistically significant at the level of individual dams. Finally, at the system scale ρ was significantly related to SWE/P, with a stronger relationship observed than the dependence of total hydropower generation on SWE/P. Notably, the system-scale relationship between ρ and SWE/P changed dramatically in the latter part of the temporal domain (2012–2020), with a much steeper slope and greater fraction of variance explained by SWE/P. These results illustrate the historical relationship between SWE/P, monthly complementarity of hydro and solar power, complexities of these relationships due to snow and watershed hydrology and reservoir management, and a change in the observed relationship between SWE/P and hydropower generation timing. To the extent that hydro and solar power generation complementarity is responsive to SWE/P, expected declines in SWE/P may indicate greater seasonal complementarity but reduced hydropower available for load-balancing when solar power generation is highest.