Scenarios of the Union State of Belarus and Russia Evolution: values and pragmatics

Abstract

Introduction. The Union State of Russia and Belarus, as well as its participating countries, are once again in their history facing a choice of further development path. Multiple challenges and threats affect the formulation and interpretation of many issues, including those related to axiological parameters, determining the variability of their solutions and increasing the need to anticipate, prevent or minimize the negative consequences of existing/probable risk situations. The purpose of this study is to identify possible options for the evolution of the Union State of Belarus and Russia as an integration format from the perspective of its geopolitical significance and socio-philosophical meaning in a dynamically changing internal and external environment. Methods. The study was based on a systematic approach that allowed us to consider the Union State of Belarus and Russia as a complex integration system. The methods of traditional document study, comparative analysis, political diagnostics, scenario analysis were used. Results and Discussion. The key parameters of the complexity of the Union State as an integration association are determined, the scenarios of its evolution in the positive and negative spectrum are substantiated. The generalized trends for them are the deepening of integration – with a wide coverage of the spheres and sectors of integration and the deactualization of bilateral integration with the loss of the creativity of the idea and the effectiveness of integration practice, the narrowing of the overall integration field, respectively. Conclusion. The most plausible scenarios of the first group include the option of “Belarusian-Russian Confederation”, the least acceptable – “Russian-Belarusian Federation” and “Slavic integration”, although their axiological component is the most obvious. Among the scenarios of the second group are “Back to the Future” and “Marginalization of the Union State”, as well as a catastrophic option. Systemic vulnerabilities that enhance the prospects for the implementation of negative scenarios are shown. The ill-considered nature of the general strategy, ideology and model of union construction, the lack of formation of union law, the rudimentary nature of supranationality in the management system of the Union State, the imbalance of integration levers, the limited tools of integration, the elitism of political communications, the insufficiency of socio-political support for union construction are emphasized. Conclusions are drawn about the need to ensure a reasonable balance between values and pragmatics in the Russian-Belarusian integration, the importance of constructive and active work in the internal dimension, a joint response to external destructive influence.