Demographic Dividend and Youth Unemployment: Evidence from the Southern States of India

Abstract

The expansion of employment and reduction of unemployment that ensures adequate livelihood security and decent conditions of work ought to be the bottom line in the pursuit of economic development in a country like India. Today, the Indian economy has been experiencing demographic transition and it is gaining economically from the changing age structure. Among the age structure, the age from 15 to 29 is an important human resource for the economic development of any other nation. Current predictions suggest a steady increase in the youth population to 464 million by 2021 and finally a decline to 458 million by 2026. By 2020, India is set to become the world’s youngest country with 64 percent of its population in the working-age group. The youth population comprises 35 percent of the urban population and 32 percent of the rural population, at the same time they are facing development challenges like unemployment, poverty, inequality, and discrimination, etc., these issues are affecting the lives of billions of youth population. According to 2011 Census 84.5 million young people in India live below the poverty line, which is the highest rate worldwide, (44.2 percent of the total youth population) at the same time there is 44 million Indian youth who are undernourished, which constitutes 23 percent of the youth population in India. The work participation rate among young people has been declining from 55.5 percent in 1983 to 46.0 percent in 2004-2005. According to the OECD Economic Survey India, 2017 reported that Over 30% of youth aged 15-29 in India are not in employment, education or training. This is more than double the OECD average and almost three times that of China. In this context, this paper examines the Demographic dividend, Youth Employment, and Unemployment: Evidence from the Southern States of India from 1981 to 2011. The study is carried out with two specific objectives: (1) to understand the level and trends of employment and unemployment among youth in India and selected states and (2) to comprehend the relation of youth employment and unemployment with population structure and economic development in India and selected states. The present paper is based on various Census of India reports from 1981 to 2011, National Sample Survey rounds on Employment and Unemployment and secondary sources from RBI and National Commission of Population Projection on India and States from 2001 to 2026 by the Registrar General of India.