Road Safety Development and Economic Growth in China From 1979 to 2018

Abstract

Road safety development is affected by both motorization rates and economic growth. This phenomenon is studied using the Kuznets curve model, which uses data such as the number of road fatalities, the population, the number of vehicles, and the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, all of which are verified by applying the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. The results showed that there were strong links between road safety development and economic growth in China. As GDP per capita rose from 1979 to 2018, the number of vehicles per person increased and the number of fatalities per vehicle decreased, producing a relationship that followed an N-shaped curve. However, in 2002, the relationship between the road mortality rate and GDP per capita followed an inverted U-shaped curve; the point at which this happened in the Kuznets curve was the turning point for road safety performance in China. Thus, road mortality rates increased as GDP per capita increased, but declined once GDP per capita exceeded 17 187 CNY. The analysis that stems from the results of the Kuznets curve model is consistent with the performance evaluation derived from the DEA-based road safety model. The findings could provide an important reference for policymakers to improve road safety under harsh economic conditions.