The Effect of Housing Price Fluctuations on the Macro-economy

B. Gao, R. Ren
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Abstract

Since 2010, the central government of China has introduced a series of tightened policy to limit too fast ascension in housing price. This paper proposes a method to estimate the effect of housing price fluctuations on the macro-economy. In the model, housing price fluctuations not only change housing market situations, but also the productivity of construction and real estate sectors. Stress testing results show that the shock to real estate sector is much stronger than that to construction sector in stress scenarios. There are about 30% between their decreased degrees of value added relative to houses. Regarding 2009 as the base period, when sales price of new common houses decreases 1.65%, 10% and 20%, the GDP growth rate of China will reduce 1.9%, 2.8% and 3.9% respectively.
房价波动对宏观经济的影响
自2010年以来,中国中央政府出台了一系列紧缩政策,以限制房价过快上涨。本文提出了一种估算房价波动对宏观经济影响的方法。在模型中,房价波动不仅改变了住房市场状况,也改变了建筑和房地产部门的生产率。压力测试结果表明,在压力情景下,房地产行业受到的冲击要远大于建筑业。与房屋相比,它们的增加值下降幅度约为30%。以2009年为基期,当新建普通住宅销售价格下降1.65%、10%和20%时,中国GDP增长率将分别下降1.9%、2.8%和3.9%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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