A methodology to assess the market potential of VLJ-based air taxi services

Abstract

Very light jets (VLJs), the first of which entered service in 2007, offer improved price-performance characteristics over existing turbine-powered models; yet the aviation industry remains divided about their commercial viability. This paper presents an analysis of the market potential for air taxi services planning to operate VLJs, since this business model is considered by many to be the cornerstone of future VLJ demand. The methodology employs a spreadsheet-based mode choice model that compares travel by VLJ air taxi, car, and scheduled airline. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis suggests that individuals from high income households traveling short distances (about 300 miles) are most likely to select the air taxi option. The probabilistic results are applied to a base of annual person trips to obtain a VLJ air taxi forecast of 15.6 million person trips in 2016. The approach is extended to estimate a median fleet size of 3,820 VLJs required to serve this demand. These results suggest that the most aggressive VLJ forecasts are least likely to materialize.