Preliminary analysis of the impact of design-stage uncertainties on the performance of microgrids

D. Mouton, B. Bekker
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Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of how design-stage uncertainties affect the operational performance of a microgrid, measured through metrics like fuel consumption, excess renewable energy, hardware utilisation and economic feasibility. The results show that as uncertainties in the load and weather data used to size the microgrid increase, so do the performance risks. The weather resource results show that a significant economic and technical performance change can occur between different years. The research also considered the impact of utilising three dispatch strategies during microgrid sizing and later operations. The results display the importance of taking the dispatch strategy into consideration during the sizing process, as it ultimately influences and amplifies operational performance impacts. The Predictive Dispatch strategy system shows the best performance initially due to the smaller component sizes realised but performs noticeably worse compared to other strategies when uncertainties occur. This study also highlights the risk of using a deterministic program where only one specific solution is given, compared to following a probabilistic approach to microgrid sizing.
设计阶段不确定性对微电网性能影响的初步分析
本文通过燃料消耗、可再生能源过剩、硬件利用率和经济可行性等指标,分析了设计阶段的不确定性如何影响微电网的运行性能。结果表明,随着负荷和天气数据的不确定性增加,微电网的性能风险也随之增加。气象资源分析结果表明,不同年份间经济技术性能变化显著。该研究还考虑了在微电网规模和后期运行期间使用三种调度策略的影响。结果显示了在分级过程中考虑调度策略的重要性,因为它最终会影响并放大操作性能的影响。由于实现的组件尺寸较小,预测调度策略系统最初表现出最佳性能,但当发生不确定性时,与其他策略相比,表现明显较差。本研究还强调了使用确定性程序的风险,其中只给出了一个特定的解决方案,与遵循微电网规模的概率方法相比。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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