A mathematical modelling for the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran

Abstract

The novel coronavirus which is known as SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 emerged in China with the first clinical case in December 2019, and afterwards, it has turned into a global problem very fast. Iran is a crowder Middle Eastern country with a population of 82531700. Until 31.03.2020, the number of cases in Iran reached 44605, and 2898 patients lost their lives. This study aimed to simulate the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran with modified mathematical modelling established based on the information that the time-dependent change (spreading rate) in the number P of the individuals who has caught a contagious disease is proportional to the multiplication of the numbers of those who have caught the disease and those who have not. If the precautions are increased a little bit, as its reflection on the progression of the disease would be “exponential”, it seems possible for the number of cases to decrease down to around 120 thousand and for the deaths to be around 8 thousand or even lower. According to our modified mathematical modelling results, in order to change the course of the pandemic in Iran, effective individual and public precautions should definitely be taken urgently. The most effective individual precautions may be listed as paying maximal attention to hygiene, having a natural and healthy diet, increasing mobility and exercise and paying attention to social isolation.