Իրանի հարկադրական արտաքին քաղաքականությունը Հարավային Կովկասում

Abstract

Many Iranian experts and scholars believe that the influence of the US is eroding in the region. This argument is justified by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Iraq, and other parts of the Middle East. However, the US military withdrawal and redeployment from the region does not mean its influence will diminish since the Americans will pursue their policy through their proxies and allies. Hence, the Saudis, Israelis, and Turks will try to shape the US interest in the region by containing the Russian, Iranian and Chinese interests. Iranians, especially the conservatives, view the regional geopolitical and geo-economic developments through this (anti-Israeli and anti-American) prism. This is why Iranians directly intervened in Syria and Iraq since they saw the “Sunni-Islamist jihadism” as an “American-Zionist plot” to change the balance of power in the region and destabilize Iran. Tehran looks to the South Caucasus through the same prism. Although Tehran, diplomatically and militarily was not pro-active as its presence in the Middle East, however, this paper will highlight Iran’s limitations and “red lines” in the region, analyze them and ask why Iran shifted from passive to assertive diplomacy, and raise few recommendations to strengthen the Armenian-Iranian relations.