Peramalan Rate of Return Saham Menggunakan Metode Brown’s Weighted Exponential Moving Average dengan Optimasi Levenberg-Marquardt

Abstract

Stocks can be defined as a sign of the participation of unilateral capital in a company or a limited liability company in the form of proof of a company's assets and it is formed as a valueble proof letters as a statement of participating in capital. Return stockis one of the factors that motivates investors to invest or interact and also a reward for the courage of investors to take risks or investments. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia is one of the largest banks in Indonesia that experiences an increase in stock prices every year. The Brown's Weighted Exponential Moving Average (BWEMA) method which is a combination of the Weighted Exponential Moving Average (WEMA) and Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing (BDES) methods will be used in this study. The data used is the daily data of closing price of the stock (closing price) of PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia on February 6, 2018 until February 6, 2019. MSE and MAPE BWEMA values ​​were obtained at 6124.222 and 1.831685%, while MSE and MAPE WEMA values ​​were 7559.211 and 1.998439% respectively. The results obtained show that the BWEMA method has smaller MSE and MAPE values. This shows that the BWEMA method is better than the WEMA method in terms of forecasting. As a results the BWEMA method is continued to calculate the forecasts rate of return for the next 7 days. The average value returns obtained is 0.111497% stock  which means during the period of the investment, investors get a profit of 0.111497%% per day of the total funds invested in the shares of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.