The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?

Marcus Hagedorn, I. Manovskii, K. Mitman
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引用次数: 107

Abstract

We measure the aggregate effect of unemployment benefit duration on employment and the labor force. We exploit the variation induced by Congress' failure in December 2013 to reauthorize the unprecedented benefit extensions introduced during the Great Recession. Federal benefit extensions that ranged from 0 to 47 weeks across U.S. states were abruptly cut to zero. To achieve identification we use the fact that this policy change was exogenous to cross-sectional differences across U.S. states and we exploit a policy discontinuity at state borders. Our baseline estimates reveal that a 1% drop in benefit duration leads to a statistically significant increase of employment by 0.019 log points. In levels, 2.1 million individuals secured employment in 2014 due to the benefit cut. More than 1.1 million of these workers would not have participated in the labor market had benefit extensions been reauthorized.
延长失业救济对就业的影响:2014年的就业奇迹?
我们衡量了失业救济持续时间对就业和劳动力的总体影响。2013年12月,国会未能重新授权在大衰退期间推出的前所未有的福利延长计划,我们利用了这一失败导致的变化。美国各州从0到47周不等的联邦福利延长期限突然被削减为零。为了实现识别,我们利用了这样一个事实,即这种政策变化是美国各州横断面差异的外生因素,我们利用了州边界上的政策不连续性。我们的基线估计显示,福利持续时间每减少1%,就业率就会显著增加0.019个对数点。2014年,由于福利削减,有210万人获得了就业。如果重新批准延长福利,其中110多万工人将不会进入劳动力市场。
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