Pre Harvest Yield Forecasting Models for Western Maharashtra for Main Crops using Weather Indices

Abstract

Forecasting models were developed using nineteen years (1998-2016) for cotton crop and twenty-seven years (1990-2016) of weather and yield data for sorghum and sugarcane crop. Models were validated for three years (2013-1015), two years (2014 and 2015) and three years (2013-1015) for cotton, sorghum and sugarcane crop respectively. R2 values for all districts were above 0.6 which was good fit and per cent error of validation was near about ±10% for all districts in studied crops. Good agreements have been realized between actual and predicted yield with similar trends of deviation at preharvest stage. Hence these models can be used for forecasting sorghum yield in preharvest stage which is very useful to government authorities to plan the sorghum, cotton and sugarcane crop production more efficiently.