Acceptability Risk Assessment for the Complex Engineering System’s Development Projects Portfolio

Abstract

One the most serious challenge for contemporary engineering concerning complex system design and development process is discussed. The inmost dream and long-time ambition of designers are how to provide complex systems possibilities to be almost always reliable and survivable during overall its life cycle. Fuzzy forecasting technique here proposed has a declared mission to make reasonable fairly prediction of complex system’s evolution behavior and validation of its acceptability via group-expertise procedure. In this way composite criteria vector based on expert’s skills is used for assessment of system’s risks and its acceptance from the point of view of general engineering goals achievement. An original approach to solve the problem of risk assessment by using project development toolkit is considered.