Overview of Selected Bankruptcy Prediction Models Applied in V4 Countries

Pavol Král, Slovakia Žilina, Lucia Švábová, M. Durica
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Bankruptcy prediction models are often an applied tool for detecting unfavourable development of the financial situation of the company. The prediction of financial health of business entities is the most important information because of dynamic development of the business environment. Many prediction models are known nowadays. They are different by their reliability (predictive ability), the composition of used variables, trade union orientation, the degree of consideration of domestic market conditions etc. It is clear from this that it is not possible to create a universal, unified prediction model that would be able reliably and with sufficient time to indicate unfavourable company financial development leading to bankruptcy applied in all sectors or regions. Introductory part of contribution is devoted to the literature review of issues and the definitions of the concept of bankruptcy based on the so-called non-prosperity indicators (profit, total liquidity and equity/liabilities ratio), that take into account the current legislation of this issue in the Slovak republic. Then the contribution discusses the role and significance of prediction models in corporate practice, compares the advantages and disadvantages of models containing accounting and market indicators. The authors also devoted the space to identifying restrictions on the usability of known foreign bankruptcy models in economic conditions of V4 countries and to define a set of the most frequently applied models taking into account specific economics conditions in these countries.
破产预测模型在V4国家的应用综述
破产预测模型通常是一种用于检测公司财务状况不利发展的工具。由于商业环境的动态发展,对企业财务健康状况的预测是最重要的信息。现在有许多已知的预测模型。它们的不同之处在于它们的可靠性(预测能力)、使用变量的组成、工会导向、对国内市场状况的考虑程度等。由此可见,不可能创建一个通用的、统一的预测模型,该模型能够可靠地、有足够的时间表明在所有部门或地区导致破产的不利公司财务发展。论文的导论部分专门对问题进行文献审查,并根据所谓的非繁荣指标(利润、流动资金总额和权益/负债比率)对破产概念进行定义,其中考虑到斯洛伐克共和国关于这一问题的现行立法。然后论述了预测模型在企业实践中的作用和意义,比较了包含会计指标和市场指标的预测模型的优缺点。作者还专门研究了已知的国外破产模型在V4国家经济条件下的可用性限制,并根据这些国家的具体经济条件定义了一套最常用的模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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