Prediction of hydrodynamic parameters for the Vistula Lagoon

Abstract

The Vistula Lagoon is a very shallow basin, endangered by storm surges and man's pressure on its environment. The purpose of the paper is to develop a simple system, enabling short-term forecast of water level elevations and flows in the Lagoon and Baltiysk Strait, which is needed for storm surge prevention, for safe navigation and combating oil and chemical spills in the area. The results of calculations, using 2D Mike 21 system and open boundary conditions from 3D operational model of the whole Baltic Sea, HIROMB, are encouraging, but the model still needs thorough calibration based on more measurement data.