DYNAMICS IN DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE OMSK REGION

Social Aspects of Population Health Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI:10.21045/2071-5021-2022-68-4-13

N. Anpilova, O. Pasechnik, I. P. Burashnikova, E.D. Anpilova, A.V. Kyazina, A. Blokh

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Significance: The demographic processes currently taking place in our country, including in the Siberian Federal District, have a distinct negative character. The purpose of the study: to analyze dynamics in demographic processes - fertility, mortality and natural increase of the population of the Omsk region, to analyze gender composition of the population of the region and structure of the working age population. Material and methods: The observation period covers 15 years - from 2005 to 2020. The material of the study was official statistics on the number of registered births and deaths, posted on the website of the Federal State Statistics Service. Time series analysis was carried out using the least squares method, regressions for trends were determined and the growth rate of indicators was calculated. Results: In the Omsk region, the birth rate was declining, and by the beginning of 2021 it equaled to 9.3 per 1000 population, which is 30% lower than the average multi-year birth rate. Negative natural growth and migration decline of the population and pronounced urbanization of the Omsk region only exacerbate demographic problems. In the population age structure, there is a decrease in the share of working age population, accompanied by higher demographic burden on both urban and rural working age population. Conclusion: The birth rate in the Omsk region has been characterized by a downward trend since 2014, in 2020 the lowest birth rate of 9.3 per 1000 population was registered, it is 30% lower than the average multi-year level. Mortality in 2005-2019 in the Omsk region was characterized by a weak downward trend (Tsn = -1.2%, r = 0.93), and increased by 23.0%, adding up to 15.5 per 1000 population against the background of the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection. Scope of application: the study results can be used to develop measures aimed at stabilizing demographic processes: reducing mortality, including among the working-age population, and increasing fertility.

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鄂木斯克地区人口进程的动态

意义:目前在我国，包括在西伯利亚联邦区，正在发生的人口进程具有明显的消极特征。该研究的目的是:分析鄂木斯克州人口进程的动态-生育率、死亡率和人口自然增长，分析该地区人口的性别构成和工作年龄人口的结构。材料与方法:观察期为2005 - 2020年，共15年。研究的材料是联邦国家统计局网站上公布的关于登记出生和死亡人数的官方统计数字。采用最小二乘法进行时间序列分析，确定趋势回归，计算指标增长率。结果:在鄂木斯克地区，出生率正在下降，到2021年初，它相当于每1000人9.3人，比平均多年出生率低30%。鄂木斯克地区人口的负增长和移徙人口的减少以及明显的城市化只会加剧人口问题。在人口年龄结构中，劳动年龄人口比重下降，城乡劳动年龄人口负担加重。结论:鄂木斯克地区的出生率自2014年以来一直呈下降趋势，2020年登记的最低出生率为9.3‰，比多年平均水平低30%。2005-2019年鄂木斯克地区的死亡率呈微弱下降趋势(Tsn = -1.2%， r = 0.93)，在新型冠状病毒感染大流行的背景下，死亡率上升了23.0%，达到每1000人15.5人。适用范围:研究结果可用于制定旨在稳定人口进程的措施:降低死亡率，包括工作年龄人口的死亡率，并提高生育率。

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Social Aspects of Population Health

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