CURRENT TRENDS OF THE WORLD WHEAT MARKET: DEMAND AND SUPPLY

Abstract

Goal. study of supply and demand for wheat grain on the world market, as well as highlighting the main trends and analysis of projected wheat prices at the end of 2022, taking into account the state of crops and projected yields in major exporting countries. Method. To achieve this goal used a wide range of general and special methods of scientific knowledge: dialectical method, graphic, trend, technical analysis, method of induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, monographic. Results. The study revealed a downward trend in the supply of wheat on the world food market in the 2022/23 marketing year, which, according to experts, will significantly affect price growth and could cause a global food crisis. The reason for this situation is the decline in wheat production in major exporting countries, government restrictions on exports to some countries, weather conditions in France, the blockade of Black Sea ports by Russian troops in Ukraine. Thus, the dynamics of wheat prices in Ukraine shows that on May 9 the price of wheat fell to UAH 6,000 / t, but on May 16 it increased by UAH 500 / t, and on May 23 it fell below UAH 6,000 / t. In general, the slump in grain prices is very significant and reaches about 30% of the initial price. According to technical analysis, the forecast prices for wheat in December 2022 on the Paris Stock Exchange Euronext may reach 440 euros / ton, and on the Chicago Stock Exchange - up to 1360 c $ / bu. The scientific novelty lies in a comprehensive study of the situation on the world wheat market and highlighting the main trends in its development. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the technical analysis of the wheat grain market on the two main world exchanges and the formulation of sound conclusions about the current price movement and further trend, support and containment lines.