Scenario Based Modeling for Very Large Scale Simulations

Abstract

In order to develop complexity science based modeling, prediction and simulation methods for large scale socio-technical systems in an Ambient Intelligence (AmI) based smart environment, we propose a scenario based modeling approach. With a case study on AmI technology to support the evacuation from emergency scenarios, i.e. the Life Belt, a wearable computing systems for vibro-tactile directional guidance, we introduce the concept of model scaling from a micro to a macro level. Aligned with the scenario, we present how crowd simulation strategies encoded into a small scale simulation setup can be extended to a mixed-level simulation based on combining model aspects also coming from the large scale model. The experimental results of a real evacuation trail at a local railway station are incorporated to compare the evacuation efficiency for three strategies: (i) Potential Map, (ii) Evacuees familiarity of the exits and (iii) Exits usage optimization. A comparison with the earlier results from small scale simulation suggest that a real large scale simulation results may not be similar to that of small scale simulation due to dynamics of crowd built up and complexity of building structure.