Risk Assessment for Agricultural Supply Chain Financial Sustainable Development

Abstract

Rapid agricultural industrialization means that many Chinese small or medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), agricultural industry financial businesses, and core enterprises are seeking agricultural supply chain financial innovation. However, while there are significant benefits to be gained from innovation, agricultural supply chain finance (ASCF) has certain risks, and as the number of nodes in the agricultural supply chain increases, the potential financial risks increase. To scientifically identify the key factors affecting ASCF and to determine the relationships between these factors, this paper first constructs an agricultural supply chain financial risk evaluation index system made up of 16 aspects across five dimensions. Then, to quantitatively analyze the interactions between the factors, a model is developed that combines the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method and the Criteria Importance through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) method. Finally, a causal classification and importance analysis is conducted based on the quantitative results. It was found that pledge risk, enterprise moral risk, farmer credit risk, core enterprise credit status, operational risk and other factors were the key factors affecting ASCF. These results provide a scientific decision-making basis for ASCF risk assessments and a comprehensive guide for commercial bank risk prevention and agricultural supply chain financial business credit control, which can assist in the achievement of sustainable ASCF development.