Magyarország élelmiszer-gazdasági export-versenyképességének elemzése

Abstract

Magyarorszag elelmiszer-gazdasagi exportja dinamikusan emelkedett az utobbi evtized-ben, azonban a konstans piaci reszesedes (CM S) elemzes szerint szinte kivetel nelkul a piaci nagysag novekedese hozta az exportbővulest. A piaci osszetetelhatas a vizsgalt orszagokban tobbnyire pozitiv, de kis ertekű, mig a versenyhatas jelentősen negativ volt, vagyis a magyar kivitel kevesbe tudott alkalmazkodni a celpiacok keresletenek valtozasahoz. A magyar agrarkivitel alakulasa a vizsgalt időszakban sikeresnek tekinthető Olaszorszag es Szlovakia eseteben, ahova a piaci novekedes utemen felul bővitettuk kivitelunket. A keres-let novekedesetől, azaz a lehetősegektől elmarado exportvaltozast mertunk viszont Lengyelor-szag es Oroszorszag eseteben, ahol a gyengulő versenykepesseg gyakorlatilag megfelezte a piaci nagysag es a piaci osszetetel hatasabol adodo potencialis kivitelnovekmenyt. Az ar- es minősegi versenykepesseget elemző szamitasok azt igazoltak, hogy inkabb a relativ olcsobb termekek tudtak piaci pozicioikon javitani: a nemet piacon ez a repcemagra es a kukoricara, az olasz piacon pedig a buzara es a kukoricara volt igaz. A megvizsgalt huster-mekek ezzel szemben atlagos arfekvest es stabil piaci poziciot mutattak a nemet es az olasz piacokon. ----------------------------------------------------- The Hungarian agri-food sector export has grown dynamically over the last decade. We used constant market share (CMS) analysis to decompose the changes in export growth into components. Almost without exception, the increasing market size provided the majority of export growth. The commodity (composition) and competitiveness effect components had varied results and were not so positive. They showed that the Hungarian export structure was less adaptive to demand changes in the target export markets. There were positive examples of export growth however, such as Italy and Slovakia, where the competitiveness effect explained more than half of the Hungarian exports. The neg-ative examples are numerous; the most important are the Polish and Italian trade relationships where competitiveness effectiveness almost halved the measured export growth potential. By analysing the price and quality competitiveness with relative unit value (RUV) cal-culations we could show that in the case of the cereal and oilseed commodities the relatively lower-priced products could improve their market position. In the case of the German market Hungarian rapeseed and maize gained market share with relatively low prices, and on the Ital-ian market this was true for wheat and maize. The analysed meat products on the other hand could only secure a stable market position with their average prices on the German and Italian markets.