Traffic and Casualty Trends in Canadian Arctic Shipping

B. Judson
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Abstract

Significant research on Arctic sea ice trends and the potential for resource development have been well documented and illustrated as drivers for changes to Arctic shipping traffic patterns. There is a strong awareness of the potential risks to the environment such as an oil spill in ice as well as impacts on traditional human activity. Similarly, there is awareness that there will be a demand for increased navigation services such as aids to navigation, charting and emergency response capacity. However, many questions remain about what impact sea ice trends and resource development have had on shipping and accidents. To date, the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) project has provided a snapshot of Arctic shipping traffic patterns and activity for the year 2004 and suggests a further research opportunity exists to conduct a trend analysis of shipping activity. The AMSA report suggests that “As marine activity continues to expand in the Arctic, statistical trends indicate that the potential risk of vessel mishaps and marine pollution incidents also increases” (Arctic Council, 2009). However, this is not necessarily the case where risks are managed. Accident trends in the Canadian Arctic suggest that safety management, vessel design and navigation experience have had positive impacts and one must look more closely at specific areas of operation, vessel types and activity to identify opportunities to improve risk management including both prevention and response. So the question remains “What can we learn from recent trends in vessel traffic and accident rates to better understand potential navigation impacts in the future?” Using the AMSA Shipping Database (Arctic Council, 2009) and a spatial trend analysis of Canadian Arctic shipping traffic and vessel accident rates covering the period 1987 to 2008, this paper will report on preliminary findings, show where accident rates are increasing and decreasing, provide traffic trends for each Shipping Safety Control Zone, help to dispel a few myths, and possibly confirm other rumours.
加拿大北极航运的交通和伤亡趋势
关于北极海冰趋势和资源开发潜力的重要研究已被充分记录和说明为北极航运交通模式变化的驱动因素。人们强烈意识到对环境的潜在风险,例如冰中的石油泄漏以及对传统人类活动的影响。同样,人们认识到将需要增加导航服务,如助航、制图和应急能力。然而,海冰趋势和资源开发对航运和事故的影响仍然存在许多问题。迄今为止,北极海运评估(AMSA)项目提供了2004年北极航运交通模式和活动的快照,并建议存在进一步的研究机会,以对航运活动进行趋势分析。AMSA的报告表明,“随着北极地区海洋活动的不断扩大,统计趋势表明,船舶事故和海洋污染事件的潜在风险也在增加”(北极理事会,2009年)。然而,这并不一定是风险管理的情况。加拿大北极地区的事故趋势表明,安全管理、船舶设计和航行经验已经产生了积极的影响,人们必须更密切地关注具体的操作领域、船舶类型和活动,以确定改善风险管理的机会,包括预防和应对。因此,问题仍然是“我们能从最近的船舶交通和事故率趋势中学到什么,以更好地了解未来潜在的导航影响?”利用AMSA航运数据库(北极理事会,2009年)和加拿大北极航运交通和船舶事故率的空间趋势分析,涵盖1987年至2008年期间,本文将报告初步调查结果,显示事故率上升和下降的地方,提供每个航运安全控制区的交通趋势,帮助消除一些神话,并可能证实其他谣言。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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