A modeling method for GM(1,1) and its application based on a particular data feature

Abstract

By leading in the concept of quasi-central symmetry data sequence, this paper presented and proved a sufficient condition for the parameter identification value of the development coefficient to equal zero, and discussed the impact of truncation errors in the floating-point calculation on the development coefficient. Then, an additional test step was added to the traditional grey modeling procedure, and an improved GM(1,1) modeling method was proposed. The actual numerical examples show that this new modeling method is conducive for constructing grey models with higher prediction accuracy. Finally, using the proposed modeling method this paper demonstrated an actual application in forecasting gasoline prices and the result indicates high prediction precision.