A Novel Approach to Analysis of Road Accidents Using the Trend Analysis and IPTA Method: A Case Study of Kosovo

Abstract

Road accidents in Kosovo cause more than 100 deaths each year and about EUR 40 million in property damage. The paper presents an accident prediction model that relates accident frequency to various contributory factors and is developed using trend analysis and the Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis method. In addition, the study investigates road traffic accidents using a novel methodology to compare the different modes and other parameters. The presented research also discusses the road safety in Kosovo, which is a Republic with relatively low economic growth based on GDP per capita, a young population, an increase in the number of vehicles per capita, and an increase in the number of road accidents, but a decline in the number of deaths from road accidents in recent years.